Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
OO 4740 · ORD → MSN
departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 6:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 26%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.