Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 4740 · ORD → MSN
departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 6:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 25%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.