Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OO 4809 · ORD → ICT

departs 8:52 AM CT · arrives 11:12 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±7 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.39 in

ICT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4809 · ORD → ICT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICT?