Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
OO 4990 · ORD → FSD
departs 2:19 PM CT · arrives 4:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 23%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 23%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
FSD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.