Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OO 5233 · DEN → AMA

departs 2:10 PM MT · arrives 4:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AMA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5233 · DEN → AMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMA?