Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
OO 5583 · TUS → SFO
departs 3:28 PM MT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 17%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 26%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at TUS that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.