Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 5583 · TUS → SFO
departs 3:28 PM MT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.