Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5781 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OO 5781 · DEN → ASE

departs 8:25 PM MT · arrives 9:26 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ASE?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ASE

↓ ASE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ASE (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5781 · DEN → ASE

Odds over time

How late will it get to ASE?