Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 5863 · LAX → SBP
departs 10:38 PM PT · arrives 11:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SBP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBP?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SBP is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
SBP (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.