Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 5863 · LAX → SBP
departs 10:38 PM PT · arrives 11:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SBP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBP?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SBP is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
OO's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SBP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.