Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 5865 · SBN → ORD
departs 6:26 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.45 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.