Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 6438 · ROC → ORD
departs 8:42 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.