Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 6438 · ROC → ORD
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.