Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1008 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 1008 · ORD → SBA

departs 8:45 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ SBA is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SBA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

SBA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1008 · ORD → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?