Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1141 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 1141 · SFO → EWR

departs 10:35 PM PT · arrives 7:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±5 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1141 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?