Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1141 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 1141 · SFO → EWR

departs 10:35 PM PT · arrives 7:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1141 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?