Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1205 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 1205 · RDU → EWR

departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 8:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
24%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1205 · RDU → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?