Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1369 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 1369 · ORD → DCA

departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

DCA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1369 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?