Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1561 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 1561 · SFO → SAN

departs 4:43 PM PT · arrives 6:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1561 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?