Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1578 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 1578 · SFO → SBA

departs 10:27 AM PT · arrives 11:50 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ SBA is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1578 · SFO → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?