Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1578 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1578 · SFO → SBA

departs 10:29 AM PT · arrives 11:52 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ SBA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SBA that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1578 · SFO → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?