Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1862 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 1862 · FAT → ORD

departs 6:00 AM PT · arrives 12:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ FAT is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from FAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1862 · FAT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?