Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1961 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 1961 · SMF → DEN

departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 4:26 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 1pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1961 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?