Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1961 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 1961 · SMF → DEN

departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 4:26 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 1pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1961 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?