Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2186 IN THE AIR (OFF 9:13 PM PT, ETA 4:48 AM ET)

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2186 · SNA → EWR

took off 9:13 PM PT · expected to land 4:48 AM ET (scheduled 9:15 PM PT → 5:33 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ 9pm departures from SNA are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2186 · SNA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?