Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2206 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2206 · IAD → MCO

departs 12:35 PM ET · arrives 2:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2206 · IAD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?