Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2218 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2218 · ORD → DCA

departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 11:58 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.43 in

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2218 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?