Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 233 LANDED 7:05 PM PT, ~32 MIN LATE

Friday, October 2

UA 233 · LAX → SFO

took off 6:12 PM PT · landed 7:05 PM PT (scheduled 5:10 PM PT → 6:38 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 233 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?