Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2435 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2435 · MIA → IAD

departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

IAD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2435 · MIA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?