Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2478 LANDED 8:18 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 2478 · SFO → ONT

took off 7:19 PM PT · landed 8:18 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2478 · SFO → ONT

Odds over time