Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 253 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 253 · IAH → HNL

departs 10:10 AM CT · arrives 1:26 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.20 in

HNL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 253 · IAH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?