Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 253 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 253 · IAH → HNL

departs 10:10 AM CT · arrives 1:26 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.31 in

HNL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 253 · IAH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?