Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2841 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 2841 · LAS → SFO

departs 5:13 PM PT · arrives 6:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2841 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?