Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2841 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2841 · LAS → SFO

departs 4:42 PM PT · arrives 6:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2841 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?