Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 444 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 444 · SFO → SAN

departs 8:15 AM PT · arrives 9:59 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SFO that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 444 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?