Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 481 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 481 · ORD → SJC

departs 7:58 PM CT · arrives 10:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,733 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.10 in

SJC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 481 · ORD → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?