Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 481 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 481 · ORD → SJC

departs 7:58 PM CT · arrives 10:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 481 · ORD → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?