Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 530 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 530 · ORD → ATL

departs 9:07 AM CT · arrives 12:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 530 · ORD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?