Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 531 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 531 · JAC → DEN

departs 4:23 PM MT · arrives 6:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±5 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from JAC are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

JAC (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 531 · JAC → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?