Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 531 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 531 · JAC → DEN

departs 4:23 PM MT · arrives 6:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±10 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from JAC are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

JAC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 531 · JAC → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?