Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 573 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 573 · SFO → OGG

departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 12:34 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 573 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?