Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 573 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 573 · SFO → OGG

departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 12:34 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ SFO is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 573 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?