Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 643 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 643 · SNA → IAH

departs 3:05 PM PT · arrives 8:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
15%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ 3pm departures from SNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 643 · SNA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?