Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 648 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 648 · SFO → MSP

departs 4:10 PM PT · arrives 9:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 648 · SFO → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?