Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1040 · BWI → ORF
departs 10:35 PM ET · arrives 11:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
ORF usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.