Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1040 · BWI → ORF
departs 10:05 PM ET · arrives 11:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ORF that day
↓
ORF usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.