Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 1040 · BWI → ORF
departs 10:35 PM ET · arrives 11:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
ORF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.