Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1294 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

WN 1294 · MDW → DCA

departs 11:15 AM CT · arrives 2:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from MDW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.30 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1294 · MDW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?