Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 133
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 133 · TPA → SAN
departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 58%
Mon 10/5 35%
Fri 10/9 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.