Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1458 · MCI → DCA
departs 12:30 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
Other factors
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
12pm departures from MCI are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.